Bayesian estimation of directed functional coupling from brain recordings

PLoS One. 2017 May 18;12(5):e0177359. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177359. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

In many fields of science, there is the need of assessing the causal influences among time series. Especially in neuroscience, understanding the causal interactions between brain regions is of primary importance. A family of measures have been developed from the parametric implementation of the Granger criteria of causality based on the linear autoregressive modelling of the signals. We propose a new Bayesian method for linear model identification with a structured prior (GMEP) aiming to apply it as linear regression method in the context of the parametric Granger causal inference. GMEP assumes a Gaussian scale mixture distribution for the group sparsity prior and it enables flexible definition of the coefficient groups. Approximate posterior inference is achieved using Expectation Propagation for both the linear coefficients and the hyperparameters. GMEP is investigated both on simulated data and on empirical fMRI data in which we show how adding information on the sparsity structure of the coefficients positively improves the inference process. In the same simulation framework, GMEP is compared with others standard linear regression methods. Moreover, the causal inferences derived from GMEP estimates and from a standard Granger method are compared across simulated datasets of different dimensionality, density connection and level of noise. GMEP allows a better model identification and consequent causal inference when prior knowledge on the sparsity structure are integrated in the structured prior.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Brain / diagnostic imaging*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Databases, Factual
  • Humans
  • Image Processing, Computer-Assisted / methods*
  • Linear Models
  • Magnetic Resonance Imaging
  • Models, Neurological*

Grants and funding

This research was supported by grant numbers 612.001.211 and 639.072.513 of The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and by funds from the Bruno Kessler Foundation (FBK) and the Finnish Cultural Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.