Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2017 Aug 30;36(19):3059-3074.
doi: 10.1002/sim.7344. Epub 2017 Jun 5.

Improved confidence interval for average annual percent change in trend analysis

Hyune-Ju Kim  1 , Jun Luo  2 , Huann-Sheng Chen  3 , Don Green  4 , Dennis Buckman  4 , Jeffrey Byrne  4 , Eric J Feuer  3
Affiliations

Improved confidence interval for average annual percent change in trend analysis

Hyune-Ju Kim et al. Stat Med. .

Abstract

This paper considers an improved confidence interval for the average annual percent change in trend analysis, which is based on a weighted average of the regression slopes in the segmented line regression model with unknown change points. The performance of the improved confidence interval proposed by Muggeo is examined for various distribution settings, and two new methods are proposed for further improvement. The first method is practically equivalent to the one proposed by Muggeo, but its construction is simpler, and it is modified to use the t-distribution instead of the standard normal distribution. The second method is based on the empirical distribution of the residuals and the resampling using a uniform random sample, and its satisfactory performance is indicated by a simulation study. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Keywords: confidence interval; empirical distribution; joinpoint; resampling; segmented line regression.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Prostate Cancer Incidence for White Males
Figure 2
Figure 2
Prostate Cancer Incidence for Black Males
Figure 3
Figure 3
Breast Cancer Incidence for White Females
Figure 4
Figure 4
Pancreas Cancer Incidence for Males (All Races)
Figure 5
Figure 5
Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma Incidence for Blacks (Both Sexes)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

See all "Cited by" articles

References

    1. Kim HJ, Fay MP, Feuer EJ, Midthune DN. Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications in cancer rates. Statistics in Medicine. 2000;19(3):335–351. (correction: 2001;20(4):655) - PubMed
    1. Clegg LX, Hankey BF, Tiwari R, Feuer EJ, Edwards BK. Estimating average annual per cent change in trend analysis. Statistics in Medicine. 2009;28:3670–3682. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Kohler BA, Sherman RL, Howlader N, Jemal A, Ryerson AB, Henry KA, Boscoe FP, Cronin KA, Lake A, Noone AM, Henley SJ, Eheman CR, Anderson RN, Penberthy L. Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1975–2011, Featuring incidence of breast cancer subtypes by race/ethnicity, poverty, and state. Journal of the National Cancer Institute. 2015;107(6) doi: 10.1093/jnci.j/djv048. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Muggeo VMR. Comment on ‘Estimating average annual per cent change in trend analysis’. Statistics in Medicine. 2010;29:1958–1960. - PubMed
    1. Hinkley DV. Inference about the intersection in two-phase regression. Biometrika. 1969;56:495–504.

LinkOut - more resources