Standardized and weighted time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves to evaluate the intrinsic prognostic capacities of a marker by taking into account confounding factors

Stat Methods Med Res. 2018 Nov;27(11):3397-3410. doi: 10.1177/0962280217702416. Epub 2017 Jun 20.


Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves allow to evaluate the capacity of a marker to discriminate between subjects who experience the event up to a given prognostic time from those who are free of this event. In this article, we propose an inverse probability weighting estimator of a standardized and weighted time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve. This estimator provides a measure of the prognostic capacities by taking into account potential confounding factors. We illustrate the robustness of the estimator by a simulation-based study and its usefulness by two applications in kidney transplantation.

Keywords: Prognostic capacities; confounding factors; inverse probability weighting; propensity score; receiver operating characteristic curve; time-to-event data.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Biomarkers*
  • Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic
  • Creatinine / blood
  • Kidney Transplantation
  • Primary Graft Dysfunction
  • Prognosis*
  • ROC Curve*


  • Biomarkers
  • Creatinine