Comparison of two methods of predicting outcome in perinatal asphyxia

Lancet. 1986 Jan 11;1(8472):67-9. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(86)90718-x.


In a follow-up study of 122 full-term infants in whom postasphyxial encephalopathy occurred the incidence of death or severe handicap was 1 in 1000 deliveries. The abilities of two methods of diagnosing intrapartum asphyxia to predict outcome at a median age of 2.5 years were compared. A decision matrix calculation was undertaken to assess the sensitivity and specificity of low Apgar score and postasphyxial encephalopathy. A 10 min Apgar score less than or equal to 5 was the most sensitive of six different Apgar ratings in predicting adverse outcome (sensitivity 43%, specificity 95%) but even this was much less sensitive than the presence of moderate or severe encephalopathy in predicting death or severe handicap (sensitivity 96%).

Publication types

  • Clinical Trial
  • Comparative Study
  • Controlled Clinical Trial

MeSH terms

  • Apgar Score
  • Asphyxia Neonatorum / complications
  • Asphyxia Neonatorum / diagnosis*
  • Asphyxia Neonatorum / mortality
  • Brain Diseases / etiology
  • Evaluation Studies as Topic
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Probability
  • Prognosis