Joinpoint regression analysis to evaluate traffic public health policies by national temporal trends from 2000 to 2015

Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2018 Jun;25(2):128-133. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2017.1341937. Epub 2017 Jul 4.


In the past 16 years, a variety of factors might have impacted traffic accidents in Chile. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in traffic morbi-mortality. Overall death and injury rates and associated to alcohol per 100,000 inhabitants were monitored between 2000 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate annual percent changes (APCs) and average APCs. Permutation tests were used to determine joinpoints. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The rate of traffic deaths related to alcohol declined from 2006 until 2015 at a rate of 9.53% per year. The rate of traffic injuries related to alcohol decreased at a rate of 4.32% per year since 2008 to 2015. The use of the most sensitive approach to trend analysis brings new ele-ments to form the epidemiological analyses in Chile and similar countries.

Keywords: Joinpoint regression; Monte Carlo permutation tests; morbi-mortality; public health; traffic accidents.

MeSH terms

  • Accidents, Traffic* / mortality
  • Accidents, Traffic* / statistics & numerical data
  • Accidents, Traffic* / trends
  • Chile / epidemiology
  • Health Policy / trends*
  • Humans
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Public Health*
  • Regression Analysis*
  • Wounds and Injuries / epidemiology