The GEROS-ISS (GNSS rEflectometry, Radio Occultation and Scatterometry onboard International Space Station) is an innovative experiment for climate research, proposed in 2011 within a call of the European Space Agency (ESA). This proposal was the only one selected for further studies by ESA out of ~25 ones that were submitted. In this work, the instrument performance for the near-nadir altimetry (GNSS-R) mode is assessed, including the effects of multi-path in the ISS structure, the electromagnetic-bias, and the orbital height decay. In the absence of ionospheric scintillations, the altimetry rms error is <50 cm for a swath <~250 km and for U10 <10 m/s. If the transmitted power is 3 dB higher (likely to happen at beginning of life of the GNSS spacecrafts), mission requirements (rms error is <50 cm) are met for all ISS heights and for U10 up to 15 m/s. However, around 1.5 GHz, the ionosphere can induce significant fading, from 2 to >20 dB at equatorial regions, mainly after sunset, which will seriously degrade the altimetry and the scatterometry performances of the instrument.
Keywords: GNSS-R; altimetry; error budget; ionosphere; scintillations.