Time series analysis and mortality model of dog bite victims presented for treatment at a referral clinic for rabies exposure in Monrovia, Liberia, 2010-2013

Ayodeji O Olarinmoye; Johnson F Ojo; Ayotunde J Fasunla; Olayinka O Ishola; Fahnboah G Dakinah; Charles K Mulbah; Khalid Al-Hezaimi; Babasola O Olugasa

doi:10.1016/j.sste.2017.04.003

Time series analysis and mortality model of dog bite victims presented for treatment at a referral clinic for rabies exposure in Monrovia, Liberia, 2010-2013

Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2017 Aug:22:1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2017.04.003. Epub 2017 May 25.

Authors

Ayodeji O Olarinmoye¹, Johnson F Ojo², Ayotunde J Fasunla³, Olayinka O Ishola⁴, Fahnboah G Dakinah⁵, Charles K Mulbah⁶, Khalid Al-Hezaimi⁷, Babasola O Olugasa⁸

Affiliations

¹ Department of Agriculture and Industrial Technology (Animal Science Unit), Faculty of Science and Technology, Babcock University, Ilisan-Remo, Ogun State, Nigeria; Centre for Control and Prevention of Zoonoses, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Engineer Abdullah Bugshan Research Chair for Growth Factors and Bone Regeneration, King Saud University, Saudi Arabia.
² Centre for Control and Prevention of Zoonoses, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.
³ Centre for Control and Prevention of Zoonoses, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Department of Otorhinolaryngology, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Nigeria.
⁴ Centre for Control and Prevention of Zoonoses, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.
⁵ Dog bite and Rabies Referral Clinic, 16th Street Sinkor, Barclay Avenue, Monrovia, Liberia.
⁶ College of Agriculture and Sustainable Development, Cuttington University, Liberia.
⁷ Engineer Abdullah Bugshan Research Chair for Growth Factors and Bone Regeneration, King Saud University, Saudi Arabia.
⁸ Centre for Control and Prevention of Zoonoses, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. Electronic address: bolugasa@yahoo.com.

PMID: 28760263
DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2017.04.003

Abstract

We developed time trend model, determined treatment outcome and estimated annual human deaths among dog bite victims (DBVs) from 2010 to 2013 in Monrovia, Liberia. Data obtained from clinic records included victim's age, gender and site of bite marks, site name of residence of rabies-exposed patients, promptness of care sought, initial treatment and post-exposure-prophylaxis (PEP) compliance. We computed DBV time-trend plot, seasonal index and year 2014 case forecast. Associated annual human death (AHD) was estimated using a standardized decision tree model. Of the 775 DBVs enlisted, care seeking time was within 24h of injury in 328 (42.32%) DBVs. Victim's residential location, site of bite mark, and time dependent variables were significantly associated with treatment outcome (p< 0.05). The equation X^_t=28.278-0.365t models the trend of DBVs. The high (n=705, 90.97%) defaulted PEP and average 155 AHD from rabies implied urgent need for policy formulation on national programme for rabies prevention in Liberia.

Keywords: Dog bite; Forecast; Rabies; Treatment outcome.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Animals
Bites and Stings / complications
Bites and Stings / epidemiology*
Bites and Stings / mortality
Bites and Stings / virology
Child
Child, Preschool
Decision Trees
Dogs
Female
Humans
Infant
Liberia / epidemiology
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Post-Exposure Prophylaxis / statistics & numerical data
Rabies / epidemiology*
Rabies / etiology
Rabies / mortality
Rabies / prevention & control
Referral and Consultation / statistics & numerical data
Retrospective Studies
Seasons
Time Factors
Young Adult