Using annual serologic surveillance data from all poultry farms in the Netherlands during 2007-2013, we quantified the risk for the introduction of low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) in different types of poultry production farms and putative spatial-environmental risk factors: distance from poultry farms to clay soil, waterways, and wild waterfowl areas. Outdoor-layer, turkey (meat and breeder), and duck (meat and breeder) farms had a significantly higher risk for LPAIV introduction than did indoor-layer farms. Except for outdoor-layer, all poultry types (i.e., broilers, chicken breeders, ducks, and turkeys) are kept indoors. For all production types, LPAIV risk decreased significantly with increasing distance to medium-sized waterways and with increasing distance to areas with defined wild waterfowl, but only for outdoor-layer and turkey farms. Future research should focus not only on production types but also on distance to waterways and wild bird areas. In addition, settlement of new poultry farms in high-risk areas should be discouraged.
Keywords: LPAIV; Low pathogenicity avian influenza virus; influenza; poultry farms; respiratory infections; spatial analysis; the Netherlands; viruses; waterways; wild birds; zoonoses.