Searching for mortality predictors in trauma patients: a challenging task

Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg. 2018 Aug;44(4):561-565. doi: 10.1007/s00068-017-0830-6. Epub 2017 Aug 28.


Background: We aimed to study the value of new physiological variables compared with ISS and GCS as predictors for trauma mortality in a high-income developing country having a young population.

Methods: Data of 1008 consecutive trauma patients who were included in Al-Ain City Road Traffic Collision Registry were analyzed. Demography of patients, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, shock index, shock index age (SIA), blood pressure age index (BPAI), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), injury severity score (ISS), and in-hospital mortality were analyzed. Univariate analysis was used to compare those who died with those who survived. Significant factors were then entered into a backward logistic regression model to define factors predicting mortality.

Results: 80.3% of the patients were males. The median (range) age of patients was 26 (1-78) years. Significant factors that predicted mortality were GCS (p < 0.0001), SIA (p = 0.003), ISS (p = 0.007), and BPAI (p = 0.022).

Conclusions: The physiological variables including GCS and shock index age were better predictors for trauma mortality comparted with ISS in our young population. A large global multi-centric study could possibly define an accurate global formula that uses both anatomical and physiological variables for predicting trauma mortality.

Keywords: Glasgow coma scale; Injury severity score; Mortality; Shock index age; Trauma.

MeSH terms

  • Accidents, Traffic / mortality*
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Female
  • Glasgow Coma Scale
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Injury Severity Score
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Registries
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Analysis
  • United Arab Emirates / epidemiology
  • Wounds and Injuries / mortality*