Searching for Biotic Multipliers of Climate Change

Abstract

As climates change, biologists need to prioritize which species to understand, predict, and protect. One way is to identify key species that are both sensitive to climate change and that disproportionately affect communities and ecosystems. These "biotic multipliers" provide efficient targets for research and conservation. Here, we propose eight mechanistic hypotheses related to impact and sensitivity that suggest that top consumers might often act as biotic multipliers of climate change. For impact, top consumers often affect communities and ecosystems through strong top-down effects. For sensitivity, metabolic theory and data suggest that photosynthesis and respiration differ in temperature responses, potentially increasing the sensitivity of consumers relative to plants. Larger-bodied organisms are typically more thermally sensitive than smaller ones, suggesting how large top consumers might be more sensitive than their smaller prey. In addition, traits related to predation are more sensitive than defensive traits to temperature. Top consumers might also be more sensitive because they often lag behind prey in phenological responses. The combination of low population sizes and demographic traits of top consumers could make them more sensitive to disturbances like climate change, which could slow their recovery. As top consumers are positioned at the top of the food chain, many small effects can accumulate from other trophic levels to affect top consumers. Finally, top consumers also often disperse more frequently and farther than prey, potentially leading to greater sensitivity to climate-induced changes in ranges and subsequent impacts on invaded communities. Overall, we expect that large, ectothermic top consumers and mobile predators might frequently be biotic multipliers of climate change. However, this prediction depends on the particular features of species, habitats, and ecosystems. In specific cases, herbivores, plants, or pathogens might be more sensitive than top consumers or have greater community impacts. To predict biotic multipliers, we need to compare sensitivities and impacts across trophic groups in a broader range of ecosystems as well as perform experiments that uncouple proposed mechanisms. Overall, the biotic multiplier concept offers an alternative prioritization scheme for research and conservation that includes impacts on communities and ecosystems.