Development of a Prognostic Model That Predicts Survival After Pancreaticoduodenectomy for Ampullary Cancer

Pancreas. 2017 Nov/Dec;46(10):1314-1321. doi: 10.1097/MPA.0000000000000929.


Objectives: The aims of this study were to (i) identify independent predictors of survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy for ampullary cancer and (ii) develop a prognostic model of survival.

Methods: Data were analyzed retrospectively on 110 consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy between 2002 and 2013. Subjects were categorized into 3 nodal subgroups as per the recently proposed nodal subclassification: N0 (node negative), N1 (1-2 metastatic nodes), or N2 (≥3 metastatic nodes). Clinicopathological features and overall survival were compared by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses.

Results: The overall 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 79.8%, 42.2%, and 34.9%, respectively. The overall 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates for the N0 group were 85.2%, 71.9%, and 67.4%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, 5-year survival rates for the N1 and N2 subgroups were 81.5%, 49.4%, and 49.4% and 75%, 19.2%, and 6.4%, respectively (log rank, P < 0.0001). After performing a multivariate Cox regression analysis, vascular invasion and lymph node ratio were the only independent predictors of survival. Hence, a prediction model of survival was constructed based on those 2 variables.

Conclusions: Using data from a carefully selected cohort of patients, we created a pilot prognostic model of postresectional survival. The proposed model may help clinicians to guide treatments in the adjuvant setting.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Ampulla of Vater / pathology
  • Ampulla of Vater / surgery*
  • Common Bile Duct Neoplasms / pathology
  • Common Bile Duct Neoplasms / surgery*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Lymphatic Metastasis
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / pathology
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / surgery*
  • Pancreaticoduodenectomy / methods*
  • Pilot Projects
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models*
  • Retrospective Studies