Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer

Jpn J Clin Oncol. 2017 Nov 1;47(11):1097-1102. doi: 10.1093/jjco/hyx128.


Objective: To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category.

Methods: Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method.

Results: The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively.

Conclusions: Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs.

Keywords: Helicobacter pylori; incidence; mortality; risk; stomach neoplasms.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Female
  • Gastritis, Atrophic / complications
  • Helicobacter Infections / complications
  • Helicobacter pylori / isolation & purification
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Japan / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prevalence
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk
  • Stomach Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Stomach Neoplasms / etiology
  • Stomach Neoplasms / mortality