Age-specific and year of birth changes in hospital admissions during a period of unexplained higher deaths in England

Abstract

Background: Policy makers have assumed that increase in medical demands and costs are attributable to the increasing age of the population and the inability of health and social care to limit demand.

Methods: Analysis of data obtained from NHS and Office of National Statistics.

Results: Population-adjusted age-specific patterns in medical admissions and deaths have increased over the period 2012/13 to 2015/16 in the NHS in England. The growth is both age and year of birth specific, and the youngest appear to be worst affected. Overall there has been a growth of 30,870 admissions (15% increase) in 25-29year olds compared to 119,280 extra admissions (7% increase) for 70-74year olds. Admissions of younger medical patients have also increased more so than for pneumonia, and the increase in all-cause mortality appears to be influenced by the patients' year of birth.

Conclusion: In England, medical admissions and deaths (all-cause mortality) have recently displayed very high unexplained growth. The fact that these are associated with patient year of birth suggests that the cause(s) may be related to infectious or other environmental factors encountered earlier in life.

Keywords: Age-standardized admission rates; All-cause mortality; Common diagnoses; End-of-life; Immune function; Infectious outbreaks; Workload.