Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy: from coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017

Euro Surveill. 2017 Nov;22(44):17-00685. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.44.17-00685.

Abstract

A large chikungunya outbreak is ongoing in Italy, with a main cluster in the Anzio coastal municipality. With preliminary epidemiological data, and a transmission model using mosquito abundance and biting rates, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 at 2.07 (95% credible interval: 1.47-2.59) and the first case importation between 21 May and 18 June 2017. Outbreak risk was higher in coastal/rural sites than urban ones. Novel transmission foci could occur up to mid-November.

Keywords: chikungunya; chikungunya virus; modelling; outbreaks; vector-borne infections.

MeSH terms

  • Aedes / virology*
  • Animal Distribution
  • Animals
  • Chikungunya Fever / epidemiology*
  • Chikungunya Fever / transmission*
  • Chikungunya virus
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Humans
  • Insect Vectors / physiology
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Models, Biological
  • Mosquito Vectors / physiology*
  • Mosquito Vectors / virology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Risk Factors
  • Seasons