Forecasting the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer's disease in the United States

Alzheimers Dement. 2018 Feb;14(2):121-129. doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2017.10.009. Epub 2017 Dec 7.


Introduction: We forecast the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) and evaluated potential impacts of primary and secondary preventions in the United States.

Methods: We used a multistate model incorporating biomarkers for preclinical AD with US population projections.

Results: Approximately 6.08 million Americans had either clinical AD or mild cognitive impairment due to AD in 2017 and that will grow to 15.0 million by 2060. In 2017, 46.7 million Americans had preclinical AD (amyloidosis, neurodegeneration, or both), although many may not progress to clinical disease during their lifetimes. Primary and secondary preventions have differential impact on future disease burden.

Discussion: Because large numbers of persons are living with preclinical AD, our results underscore the need for secondary preventions for persons with existing AD brain pathology who are likely to develop clinical disease during their lifetimes as well as primary preventions for persons without preclinical disease.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease; Forecast; Intervention; Prediction; Prevalence; Prevention; Statistics.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Alzheimer Disease / complications
  • Alzheimer Disease / diagnosis*
  • Alzheimer Disease / epidemiology*
  • Cognition Disorders / epidemiology
  • Cognition Disorders / etiology
  • Disease Progression*
  • Female
  • Forecasting*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Prevalence
  • United States / epidemiology