Objective This study aims to exhibit the prognosis, both mortality and morbidity, of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a single-center cohort in China. Methods A cohort of Chinese SLE patients were recruited from April 2009 to February 2010, and followed up regularly in clinic at Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH). Data for baseline, follow-up, and survival were collected, including demography, manifestations, activity, the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating/American College of Rheumatology (SLICC/ACR) Damage Index (SDI), and medications. The Kaplan-Meier method was adopted for survival analysis. Predicting and risk factors for both mortality and morbidity were evaluated by the Cox proportional hazard model. Associated factors were analyzed by the logistic regression model. Results A total of 260 patients were included at entry. The one-, three-, and five-year survival rates were 98.4%, 95.5%, and 93.8%. The proportion of patients with organ damage increased from 13.4% at baseline to 28.4% at year 6. Regression analysis showed that organ damage led to higher mortality, and organ-involved flare was associated with more future damage. Time from onset to diagnosis > 1 year, nephropathy and severe organ involvement were potential prognostic factors. Furthermore, onset age > 50 and previous organ damage were predictors for further damage. Conclusion Organ damage, severe organ involvement, and prolonged remission could be targets for the management of Chinese SLE patients to further reduce mortality. Early diagnosis, paying more attention to severe organ involvement, and preventing organ-involved flares and new organ damage would be crucially important in the future for Chinese SLE patients.
Keywords: Systemic lupus erythematosus; disease activity; organ damage; remission; survival analysis.