Background: The long-term risk associated with childhood kidney disease that had not progressed to chronic kidney disease in childhood is unclear. We aimed to estimate the risk of future end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among adolescents who had normal renal function and a history of childhood kidney disease.
Methods: We conducted a nationwide, population-based, historical cohort study of 1,521,501 Israeli adolescents who were examined before compulsory military service in 1967 through 1997; data were linked to the Israeli ESRD registry. Kidney diseases in childhood included congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract, pyelonephritis, and glomerular disease; all participants included in the primary analysis had normal renal function and no hypertension in adolescence. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratio for ESRD associated with a history of childhood kidney disease.
Results: During 30 years of follow-up, ESRD developed in 2490 persons. A history of any childhood kidney disease was associated with a hazard ratio for ESRD of 4.19 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.52 to 4.99). The associations between each diagnosis of kidney disease in childhood (congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract, pyelonephritis, and glomerular disease) and the risk of ESRD in adulthood were similar in magnitude (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of 5.19 [95% CI, 3.41 to 7.90], 4.03 [95% CI, 3.16 to 5.14], and 3.85 [95% CI, 2.77 to 5.36], respectively). A history of kidney disease in childhood was associated with younger age at the onset of ESRD (hazard ratio for ESRD among adults <40 years of age, 10.40 [95% CI, 7.96 to 13.59]).
Conclusions: A history of clinically evident kidney disease in childhood, even if renal function was apparently normal in adolescence, was associated with a significantly increased risk of ESRD, which suggests that kidney injury or structural abnormality in childhood has long-term consequences.