Risks of Melanoma and Other Cancers in Melanoma-Prone Families over 4 Decades

J Invest Dermatol. 2018 Jul;138(7):1620-1626. doi: 10.1016/j.jid.2018.01.021. Epub 2018 Feb 8.


Since 1976, melanoma-prone families have been followed at the National Cancer Institute to identify etiologic factors for melanoma. We compared risks of melanoma and other cancers in 1,226 members of 56 families followed for up to 4 decades with population rates in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. All families were tested for mutations in CDKN2A and CDK4; 29 were mutation-positive and 27 mutation-negative. We compared rates of invasive melanomas, both first and second, by family mutation status, with Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Comparing three calendar periods of the study, risk of first primary melanoma decreased slightly. Risks of melanoma after first examination, however, were approximately one-third the risks prior to the first examination in both mutation-positive and mutation-negative families. Among patients with melanoma, risk of a second melanoma was increased 10-fold in all families; risk was somewhat higher in mutation-positive families. Risks of other second cancers were increased only for pancreatic cancer after melanoma in mutation-positive families. Over 4 decades, prospective risk of melanoma has decreased substantially in both mutation-positive and mutation-negative families, when melanoma has greatly increased in the general population.

Trial registration: NCI 02-C-0211, ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT00040352.

Publication types

  • Observational Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Intramural

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Biopsy
  • Child
  • Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 4 / genetics
  • Cyclin-Dependent Kinase Inhibitor p16 / genetics
  • Dysplastic Nevus Syndrome / diagnosis
  • Dysplastic Nevus Syndrome / epidemiology*
  • Dysplastic Nevus Syndrome / genetics
  • Dysplastic Nevus Syndrome / pathology
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Medical History Taking / statistics & numerical data
  • Melanoma / diagnosis
  • Melanoma / epidemiology*
  • Melanoma / genetics
  • Melanoma / pathology
  • Middle Aged
  • Mutation
  • Neoplasms, Second Primary / epidemiology*
  • Neoplasms, Second Primary / genetics
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / genetics
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • SEER Program / statistics & numerical data*
  • Skin Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Skin Neoplasms / genetics
  • Time Factors
  • Young Adult


  • CDKN2A protein, human
  • Cyclin-Dependent Kinase Inhibitor p16
  • CDK4 protein, human
  • Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 4

Associated data

  • ClinicalTrials.gov/NCT00040352