Machine Learning Algorithms Utilizing Quantitative CT Features May Predict Eventual Onset of Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome After Lung Transplantation

Abstract

Rationale and objectives: Long-term survival after lung transplantation (LTx) is limited by bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS), defined as a sustained decline in forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV₁) not explained by other causes. We assessed whether machine learning (ML) utilizing quantitative computed tomography (qCT) metrics can predict eventual development of BOS.

Materials and methods: Paired inspiratory-expiratory CT scans of 71 patients who underwent LTx were analyzed retrospectively (BOS [n = 41] versus non-BOS [n = 30]), using at least two different time points. The BOS cohort experienced a reduction in FEV₁ of >10% compared to baseline FEV₁ post LTx. Multifactor analysis correlated declining FEV₁ with qCT features linked to acute inflammation or BOS onset. Student t test and ML were applied on baseline qCT features to identify lung transplant patients at baseline that eventually developed BOS.

Results: The FEV₁ decline in the BOS cohort correlated with an increase in the lung volume (P = .027) and in the central airway volume at functional residual capacity (P = .018), not observed in non-BOS patients, whereas the non-BOS cohort experienced a decrease in the central airway volume at total lung capacity with declining FEV₁ (P = .039). Twenty-three baseline qCT parameters could significantly distinguish between non-BOS patients and eventual BOS developers (P < .05), whereas no pulmonary function testing parameters could. Using ML methods (support vector machine), we could identify BOS developers at baseline with an accuracy of 85%, using only three qCT parameters.

Conclusions: ML utilizing qCT could discern distinct mechanisms driving FEV₁ decline in BOS and non-BOS LTx patients and predict eventual onset of BOS. This approach may become useful to optimize management of LTx patients.

Keywords: Lung transplantation; bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome; computer-assisted image processing; lung transplant rejection; quantitative CT metrics.