Background and aims: Various prognostic scores are available for predicting outcome in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We compared the available prognostic models as predictors of outcome in alcohol-related ACLF patients.
Methods: All consecutive patients with alcohol-related ACLF were included. At admission, prognostic indices-acute physiology and chronic health evaluation score (APACHE II), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, Maddrey's discriminant function (DF), age-bilirubin-INR-creatinine (ABIC), and Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLF) score were calculated. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for all prognostic scores with in-hospital, 90-day, and 1-year mortality as outcome.
Results: Of the 171 patients, 170 were males, and grade 1 ACLF in 20 (11.7%), grade 2 in 52 (30.4%), and grade 3 in 99 (57.9%) patients. One hundred and nineteen (69.6%) died in-hospital. The median (IQR) Maddrey's score, MELD, MELD-Na, ABIC, APACHE II, and CLIF-C ACLF were 87.8 (66.5-123.0), 33.1 (27.6-40.0), 34.4 (29.5-40.0), 8.5 (7.3-9.6), 15 (12-21), and 51.1 (44.1-56.4), respectively. On multivariate Cox regression analysis, independent predictors of in-hospital outcome were presence of hepatic encephalopathy (early HR, 2.078; 95%CI, 1.173-3.682, p = 0.012 and advanced, HR, 2.330; 95% CI, 1.270-4.276, p = 0.006), elevated serum creatinine (HR, 1.140; 95% CI, 1.023-1.270, p = 0.018), and infection at admission (HR, 1.874; 95% CI, 1.160-23.029, p = 0.010). On comparison of ROC curves, APACHE II and CLIF-C ACLF AUROC were significantly higher than MELD, MELD-Na, DF, and ABIC (p < 0.05) for predicting in-hospital, 90-day, and 1-year mortality. The AUROC was highest for APACHE II followed by CLIF-C ACLF (Hanley and McNeil, p = 0.660).
Conclusions: Alcohol-related ACLF has high in-hospital mortality. Among the available prognostic scores, CLIF-C ACLF and APACHE II perform best.
Keywords: APACHE II score; Acute-on-chronic liver failure; CLIF-C ACLF score; Mortality; Prognostic score.