In older people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and comorbidities, the risk of death or disability may overshadow the risk of kidney failure. To help refine this we did a retrospective population-based cohort study to evaluate the relative likelihood of adverse outcomes as functions of age and comorbidity burden among 47,228 adults with severe non-dialysis dependent CKD. We identified comorbidities using 29 validated algorithms applied to administrative data and assessed death, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, and long-term care. Over five years of follow-up, 53.4% of participants died, 24.1% had a CVD event, 14.3% were placed into long-term care and 5.3% developed ESRD. Death was 145 times more likely and 11 times more likely than ESRD for participants aged 80 years or more and 60-79 years, respectively; long-term care was 30 times more likely and 1.7 times as likely as ESRD for participants aged 80 years or more and 60-79 years, respectively. Increasing comorbidity burden was similarly associated with increased risk of death and long-term care placement but reduced the likelihood of ESRD, and the risks of increasing age were similarly incremental. Thus, among patients with severe CKD, older age and/or higher comorbidity burden, death and long-term care placement are markedly more likely than ESRD. Hence, clinicians, patients and families should all consider the relative magnitude of these risks when making decisions about renal replacement.
Keywords: albuminuria; chronic kidney disease; prognosis.
Copyright © 2018 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.