Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

Int J Biometeorol. 2018 Jul;62(7):1275-1281. doi: 10.1007/s00484-018-1532-4. Epub 2018 Apr 5.


Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Keywords: Biometeorology; Climate change; Climate extremes; Health risk; Heat stress; Iran.

MeSH terms

  • Adaptation, Physiological
  • Climate Change*
  • Heat Stress Disorders / epidemiology*
  • Hot Temperature*
  • Humans
  • Iran / epidemiology
  • Population Health
  • Risk