Various experimental and computational techniques have been employed over the past decade to provide structural and thermodynamic insights into G Protein-Coupled Receptor (GPCR) dimerization. Here, we use multiple microsecond-long, coarse-grained, biased and unbiased molecular dynamics simulations (a total of ~4 milliseconds) combined with multi-ensemble Markov state models to elucidate the kinetics of homodimerization of a prototypic GPCR, the µ-opioid receptor (MOR), embedded in a 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (POPC)/cholesterol lipid bilayer. Analysis of these computations identifies kinetically distinct macrostates comprising several different short-lived dimeric configurations of either inactive or activated MOR. Calculated kinetic rates and fractions of dimers at different MOR concentrations suggest a negligible population of MOR homodimers at physiological concentrations, which is supported by acceptor photobleaching fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments. This study provides a rigorous, quantitative explanation for some conflicting experimental data on GPCR oligomerization.