Surveillance biopsies after renal transplantation remain debatable. To drive the decision of such intervention, we propose a predictive score of abnormal histology at 1-year post-transplantation, named 1-year Renal Biopsy Index (1-RBI). We studied 466 kidney recipients from the DIVAT cohort alive with a functioning graft and a surveillance biopsy at 1-year post-transplantation. Patients displaying abnormal histology (49%) (borderline, acute rejection, interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy [IFTA] grade 2 or 3, glomerulonephritis) were compared to the normal or subnormal (IFTA grade 1) histology group. Obtained from a lasso penalized logistic regression, the 1-RBI was composed of recipient gender, serum creatinine at 3, 6, and 12 month post-transplantation and anticlass II immunization at transplantation (internal validation: AUC = 0.71, 95% CI [0.53-0.83]; external validation: AUC = 0.62, 95% CI [0.58-0.66]). While we could not determinate a threshold able to identify patients at high chance of normal or subnormal histology, we estimated and validated a discriminating threshold capable of identifying a subgroup of 15% of the patients with a risk of abnormal histology higher than 80%. The 1-RBI is computable online at www.divat.fr. The 1-RBI could be a useful tool to standardize 1-year biopsy proposal and may for instance help to indicate one in case of high risk of abnormal histology.
Keywords: histological diagnostic; kidney transplantation; predictive score; surveillance biopsy.
© 2018 Steunstichting ESOT.