US particulate matter air quality improves except in wildfire-prone areas
- PMID: 30012611
- PMCID: PMC6077721
- DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1804353115
US particulate matter air quality improves except in wildfire-prone areas
Abstract
Using data from rural monitoring sites across the contiguous United States, we evaluated fine particulate matter (PM2.5) trends for 1988-2016. We calculate trends in the policy-relevant 98th quantile of PM2.5 using Quantile Regression. We use Kriging and Gaussian Geostatistical Simulations to interpolate trends between observed data points. Overall, we found positive trends in 98th quantile PM2.5 at sites within the Northwest United States (average 0.21 ± 0.12 µg·m-3·y-1; ±95% confidence interval). This was in contrast with sites throughout the rest of country, which showed a negative trend in 98th quantile PM2.5, likely due to reductions in anthropogenic emissions (average -0.66 ± 0.10 µg·m-3·y-1). The positive trend in 98th quantile PM2.5 is due to wildfire activity and was supported by positive trends in total carbon and no trend in sulfate across the Northwest. We also evaluated daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) for 2002-2017 throughout the United States to compare with ground-based trends. For both Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) PM2.5 and MODIS AOD datasets, we found positive 98th quantile trends in the Northwest (1.77 ± 0.68% and 2.12 ± 0.81% per year, respectively) through 2016. The trend in Northwest AOD is even greater if data for the high-fire year of 2017 are included. These results indicate a decrease in PM2.5 over most of the country but a positive trend in the 98th quantile PM2.5 across the Northwest due to wildfires.
Keywords: Kriging; PM2.5; Quantile Regression; particulate matter; wildfires.
Conflict of interest statement
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Figures
Similar articles
-
Assessment and statistical modeling of the relationship between remotely sensed aerosol optical depth and PM2.5 in the eastern United States.Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2012 May;(167):5-83; discussion 85-91. Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2012. PMID: 22838153
-
Long-term mortality burden trends attributed to black carbon and PM2·5 from wildfire emissions across the continental USA from 2000 to 2020: a deep learning modelling study.Lancet Planet Health. 2023 Dec;7(12):e963-e975. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00235-8. Lancet Planet Health. 2023. PMID: 38056967
-
Ensemble-based deep learning for estimating PM2.5 over California with multisource big data including wildfire smoke.Environ Int. 2020 Dec;145:106143. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.106143. Epub 2020 Sep 24. Environ Int. 2020. PMID: 32980736 Free PMC article.
-
The delayed effect of wildfire season particulate matter on subsequent influenza season in a mountain west region of the USA.Environ Int. 2020 Jun;139:105668. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105668. Epub 2020 Mar 31. Environ Int. 2020. PMID: 32244099 Free PMC article.
-
A statistical model for predicting PM2.5 for the western United States.J Air Waste Manag Assoc. 2019 Oct;69(10):1215-1229. doi: 10.1080/10962247.2019.1640808. Epub 2019 Sep 4. J Air Waste Manag Assoc. 2019. PMID: 31291168
Cited by
-
Compound Risk of Air Pollution and Heat Days and the Influence of Wildfire by SES across California, 2018-2020: Implications for Environmental Justice in the Context of Climate Change.Climate (Basel). 2022 Oct;10(10):145. doi: 10.3390/cli10100145. Epub 2022 Oct 1. Climate (Basel). 2022. PMID: 38456148 Free PMC article.
-
Uncovering the dominant contribution of intermediate volatility compounds in secondary organic aerosol formation from biomass-burning emissions.Natl Sci Rev. 2024 Jan 9;11(3):nwae014. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwae014. eCollection 2024 Mar. Natl Sci Rev. 2024. PMID: 38390366 Free PMC article.
-
Effect modification of the association between fine particulate air pollution during a wildfire event and respiratory health by area-level measures of socio-economic status, race/ethnicity, and smoking prevalence.Environ Res Health. 2023 Jun;1(2):025005. doi: 10.1088/2752-5309/acc4e1. Epub 2023 Apr 11. Environ Res Health. 2023. PMID: 38332844 Free PMC article.
-
Public Health Benefits From Improved Identification of Severe Air Pollution Events With Geostationary Satellite Data.Geohealth. 2024 Jan 22;8(1):e2023GH000890. doi: 10.1029/2023GH000890. eCollection 2024 Jan. Geohealth. 2024. PMID: 38259818 Free PMC article.
-
Quantifying fire-specific smoke exposure and health impacts.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Dec 19;120(51):e2309325120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2309325120. Epub 2023 Dec 12. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023. PMID: 38085772
References
-
- Haikerwal A, et al. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) exposure during a prolonged wildfire period and emergency department visits for asthma. Respirology. 2016;21:88–94. - PubMed
-
- US EPA 2016 Particulate matter (PM2.5) trends. US EPA. Available at https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/particulate-matter-pm25-trends. Accessed September 6, 2017.
-
- Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW. Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science. 2006;313:940–943. - PubMed
Publication types
MeSH terms
Substances
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources
Other Literature Sources
Medical
Research Materials
