Climate-driven synchrony in growth-increment chronologies of fish from the world's largest high-elevation river

Abstract

Understanding how sensitive aquatic ecosystems respond to climate change is essential for effective biodiversity conservation and management. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is one of the most globally sensitive areas to climate change with potentially serious implications for resident fish populations and aquatic food webs. However, how the growth of TP fish responds to climate change, and how this response varies with the trophic level of different species remain unknown. We established growth-increment chronologies of two important Schizothoracinae fishes that are endemic to the TP (e.g., the omnivorous Schizopygopsis younghusbandi and the carnivorous Oxygymnocypris stewartii) from the Yarlung Tsangpo River, using otolith increment width measurements and dendrochronological methods. These growth chronologies were correlated with key indicators of environmental variation (temperature, precipitation, and river discharge) to examine the potential effects of climate change. The two chronologies displayed synchronous responses to recent climate change. In this glacial-fed river, the growth of both fish species was significantly and negatively correlated with the mean annual air temperature, while it was positively but not significantly correlated with precipitation and discharge. The higher trophic level species O. stewartii was more sensitive to climate than was the lower trophic level species S. younghusbandi, with temperature variables explaining a higher proportion of growth variability in O. stewartii (64.6%) than in S. younghusbandi (46.4%). The results collectively indicate that both species are highly sensitive to climate change, which may affect fish growth by altering water environment, fish physiological fitness and food availability. This study provides further empirical evidence of the utility of growth-increment chronologies for investigating the effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems across different basins and water body types of the TP. These findings can inform conservation and management actions related to addressing climate change on the TP and other high-elevation temperate systems found worldwide.

Keywords: Climate change; Dendrochronology; Fish otolith; Trophic niche; Yarlung Tsangpo River.