The 2016 global and national burden of diabetes mellitus attributable to PM2·5 air pollution

Abstract

Background: PM_2·5 air pollution is associated with increased risk of diabetes; however, a knowledge gap exists to further define and quantify the burden of diabetes attributable to PM_2·5 air pollution. Therefore, we aimed to define the relationship between PM_2·5 and diabetes. We also aimed to characterise an integrated exposure response function and to provide a quantitative estimate of the global and national burden of diabetes attributable to PM_2·5.

Methods: We did a longitudinal cohort study of the association of PM_2·5 with diabetes. We built a cohort of US veterans with no previous history of diabetes from various databases. Participants were followed up for a median of 8·5 years, we and used survival models to examine the association between PM_2·5 and the risk of diabetes. All models were adjusted for sociodemographic and health characteristics. We tested a positive outcome control (ie, risk of all-cause mortality), negative exposure control (ie, ambient air sodium concentrations), and a negative outcome control (ie, risk of lower limb fracture). Data for the models were reported as hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Additionally, we reviewed studies of PM_2·5 and the risk of diabetes, and used the estimates to build a non-linear integrated exposure response function to characterise the relationship across all concentrations of PM_2·5 exposure. We included studies into the building of the integrated exposure response function if they scored at least a four on the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale and were only included if the outcome was type 2 diabetes or all types of diabetes. Finally, we used the Global Burden of Disease study data and methodologies to estimate the attributable burden of disease (ABD) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of diabetes attributable to PM_2·5 air pollution globally and in 194 countries and territories.

Findings: We examined the relationship of PM_2·5 and the risk of incident diabetes in a longitudinal cohort of 1 729 108 participants followed up for a median of 8·5 years (IQR 8·1-8·8). In adjusted models, a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2·5 was associated with increased risk of diabetes (HR 1·15, 95% CI 1·08-1·22). PM_2·5 was associated with increased risk of death as the positive outcome control (HR 1·08, 95% CI 1·03-1·13), but not with lower limb fracture as the negative outcome control (1·00, 0·91-1·09). An IQR increase (0·045 μg/m³) in ambient air sodium concentration as the negative exposure control exhibited no significant association with the risk of diabetes (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·99-1·00). An integrated exposure response function showed that the risk of diabetes increased substantially above 2·4 μg/m³, and then exhibited a more moderate increase at concentrations above 10 μg/m³. Globally, ambient PM_2·5 contributed to about 3·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·2-3·8) incident cases of diabetes, about 8·2 million (95% UI 5·8-11·0) DALYs caused by diabetes, and 206 105 (95% UI 153 408-259 119) deaths from diabetes attributable to PM_2·5 exposure. The burden varied substantially among geographies and was more heavily skewed towards low-income and lower-to-middle-income countries.

Interpretation: The global toll of diabetes attributable to PM_2·5 air pollution is significant. Reduction in exposure will yield substantial health benefits.

Funding: US Department of Veterans Affairs.