Eyes wide shut: Exploring practices of negotiated ignorance in water resources modelling and management

Abstract

Formalised methods to address uncertainty are becoming the norm in hydrological modelling, yet they remain fragmented and highly academic, thus limiting their utility for practitioners. Using a qualitative, empirical study of the PIREN-Seine program in France, this paper explores the proccesses behind this trend in an effort to elucidate its prevalence despite inherent limitations when applied to a decision-making context. We identify: 1/ displacement of 'uncomfortable knowledge', 2/ fragmented responsibility, 3/ confidence, and 4/ relational framing as interconnected factors, which concurrently support the production of scientific knowledge and the social construction of ignorance, whether it be wilful or intentional. We posit that ignorance is implicitly negotiated among researchers and practitioners in order to reconcile cognitive dissonance and maintain confidence, thereby allowing water managers to take action in the face of uncertainty. Finally, we put forth the notion that having our 'eyes wide shut' can be interpreted in two ways: one facilitates the normalisation of ignorance, leaving us vulnerable to unexpected surprises; the other promotes transparent and explicit communication in support of more adaptive and robust decisions.

Keywords: Model-based decision support; Negotiated ignorance; Science-practice interface; Social production of ignorance; Uncertainty.