Development of a Prediction Model for Colorectal Cancer among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Using a Deep Neural Network

J Clin Med. 2018 Sep 12;7(9):277. doi: 10.3390/jcm7090277.


Objectives: Observational studies suggested that patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) presented a higher risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC). The current study aims to create a deep neural network (DNN) to predict the onset of CRC for patients with T2DM.

Methods: We employed the national health insurance database of Taiwan to create predictive models for detecting an increased risk of subsequent CRC development in T2DM patients in Taiwan. We identified a total of 1,349,640 patients between 2000 and 2012 with newly diagnosed T2DM. All the available possible risk factors for CRC were also included in the analyses. The data were split into training and test sets with 97.5% of the patients in the training set and 2.5% of the patients in the test set. The deep neural network (DNN) model was optimized using Adam with Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent. The recall, precision, F₁ values, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate predictor performance.

Results: The F₁, precision, and recall values of the DNN model across all data were 0.931, 0.982, and 0.889, respectively. The area under the ROC curve of the DNN model across all data was 0.738, compared to the ideal value of 1. The metrics indicate that the DNN model appropriately predicted CRC. In contrast, a single variable predictor using adapted the Diabetes Complication Severity Index showed poorer performance compared to the DNN model.

Conclusions: Our results indicated that the DNN model is an appropriate tool to predict CRC risk in patients with T2DM in Taiwan.

Keywords: colorectal cancer; deep neural network; receiver operating characteristic; the national health insurance database; type 2 diabetes mellitus.