Evolution of urban scaling: Evidence from Brazil

PLoS One. 2018 Oct 4;13(10):e0204574. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0204574. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

During the last years, the new science of cities has been established as a fertile quantitative approach to systematically understand the urban phenomena. One of its main pillars is the proposition that urban systems display universal scaling behavior regarding socioeconomic, infrastructural and individual basic services variables. This paper discusses the extension of the universality proposition by testing it against a broad range of urban metrics in a developing country urban system. We present an exploration of the scaling exponents for over 60 variables for the Brazilian urban system. Estimating those exponents is challenging from the technical point of view because the Brazilian municipalities' definition follows local political criteria and does not regard characteristics of the landscape, density, and basic utilities. As Brazilian municipalities can deviate significantly from urban settlements, urban-like municipalities were selected based on a systematic density cut-off procedure and the scaling exponents were estimated for this new subset of municipalities. To validate our findings we compared the results for overlaying variables with other studies based on alternative methods. It was found that the analyzed socioeconomic variables follow a superlinear scaling relationship with the population size, and most of the infrastructure and individual basic services variables follow expected sublinear and linear scaling, respectively. However, some infrastructural and individual basic services variables deviated from their expected regimes, challenging the universality hypothesis of urban scaling. We propose that these deviations are a product of top-down decisions/policies. Our analysis spreads over a time-range of 10 years, what is not enough to draw conclusive observations, nevertheless we found hints that the scaling exponent of these variables are evolving towards the expected scaling regime, indicating that the deviations might be temporally constrained and that the urban systems might eventually reach the expected scaling regime.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Brazil
  • Cities / economics
  • Developing Countries
  • Environment, Controlled
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Population Density*
  • Sanitary Engineering
  • Social Planning
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • Time Factors

Grants and funding

This work was supported by Swiss Mobiliar (Joao Meirelles), École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (Joao Meirelles), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (Fabiano Lemes Ribeiro), Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Fabiano Lemes Ribeiro), and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (Fabiano Lemes Ribeiro. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.