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. 2018 Nov 1;3(11):1101-1106.
doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2018.3285.

Association of Unrecognized Myocardial Infarction With Long-term Outcomes in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: The ICELAND MI Study

Tushar Acharya  1 , Thor Aspelund  2 , Torfi F Jonasson  3 , Erik B Schelbert  4 , Jane J Cao  5 , Bharath Sathya  1 , Christopher K Dyke  6 , Anthony H Aletras  1 , Sigurdur Sigurdsson  7 , Gudmundur Thorgeirsson  2 , Gudny Eiriksdottir  7 , Tamara Harris  8 , Lenore J Launer  8 , Vilmundur Gudnason  7 , Andrew E Arai  1
Affiliations

Association of Unrecognized Myocardial Infarction With Long-term Outcomes in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: The ICELAND MI Study

Tushar Acharya et al. JAMA Cardiol. .

Abstract

Importance: Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging can identify unrecognized myocardial infarction (UMI) in the general population. Unrecognized myocardial infarction by CMR portends poor prognosis in the short term but, to our knowledge, long-term outcomes are not known.

Objective: To determine the long-term outcomes of UMI by CMR compared with clinically recognized myocardial infarction (RMI) and no myocardial infarction (MI).

Design, setting, and participants: Participants of the population-based, prospectively enrolled ICELAND MI cohort study (aged 67-93 years) were characterized with CMR at baseline (from January 2004-January 2007) and followed up for up to 13.3 years. Kaplan-Meier time-to-event analyses and a Cox regression were used to assess the association of UMI at baseline with death and future cardiovascular events.

Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were a composite of major adverse cardiac events (MACE: death, nonfatal MI, and heart failure).

Results: Of 935 participants, 452 (48.3%) were men; the mean (SD) age of participants with no MI, UMI, and RMI was 75.6 (5.3) years, 76.8 (5.2) years, and 76.8 (4.7) years, respectively. At 3 years, UMI and no MI mortality rates were similar (3%) and lower than RMI rates (9%). At 5 years, UMI mortality rates (13%) increased and were higher than no MI rates (8%) but still lower than RMI rates (19%). By 10 years, UMI and RMI mortality rates (49% and 51%, respectively) were not statistically different; both were significantly higher than no MI (30%) (P < .001). After adjusting for age, sex, and diabetes, UMI by CMR had an increased risk of death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% CI, 1.27-2.04), MACE (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.26-1.93), MI (HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.45-3.03), and heart failure (HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.09-2.14) compared with no MI and statistically nondifferent risk of death (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.71-1.38) and MACE (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.91-1.66) vs RMI.

Conclusions and relevance: In this study, all-cause mortality of UMI was higher than no MI, but within 10 years from baseline evaluation was equivalent with RMI. Unrecognized MI was also associated with an elevated risk of nonfatal MI and heart failure. Whether secondary prevention can alter the prognosis of UMI will require prospective testing.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: All authors have completed and submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Dr Schelbert reports receiving personal fees from Merck and Bayer Healthcare as well as nonfinancial support from Bracco Diagnostics. Dr Arai receives nonfinancial support from Siemens and other support from Bayer. He has 2 patents issued (US Patent 6 031374 and 5 997 883). No other disclosures are reported.

Figures

Figure.1
Figure.1. Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis
All-cause mortality (A), major adverse cardiac events (B), incident nonfatalmyocardial infarction (MI) (C), and incident heart failure (D) in participants with unrecognized MI (UMI), recognized MI (RMI), and no MI at baseline.
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