Predicting 90-day and long-term mortality in octogenarians undergoing radical cystectomy

BMC Urol. 2018 Oct 22;18(1):91. doi: 10.1186/s12894-018-0402-z.

Abstract

Background: Radical cystectomy bears a considerable perioperative mortality risk particularly in elderly patients. In this study, we searched for predictors of perioperative and long-term competing (non-bladder cancer) mortality in elderly patients selected for radical cystectomy.

Methods: We stratified 1184 consecutive patients who underwent radical cystectomy for high risk superficial or muscle-invasive urothelial or undifferentiated carcinoma of bladder into two groups (age < 80 years versus 80 years or older). Multivariable and cox proportional hazards models were used for data analysis.

Results: Whereas Charlson score and the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification (but not age) were independent predictors of 90-day mortality in younger patients, only age predicted 90-day mortality in patients aged 80 years or older (odds ratio per year 1.24, p = 0.0422). Unlike in their younger counterparts, neither age nor Charlson score or ASA classification were predictors of long-term competing mortality in patients aged 80 years or older (hazard ratios 1.07-1.10, p values 0.21-0.77).

Conclusions: This data suggest that extrapolations of perioperative mortality or long-term mortality risks of younger patients to octogenarians selected for radical cystectomy should be used with caution. Concerning 90-day mortality, chronological age provided prognostic information whereas comorbidity did not.

Keywords: 90-day mortality; Age; Bladder cancer; Comorbidity; Competing mortality; Radical cystectomy.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Comorbidity
  • Cystectomy / mortality*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Urinary Bladder / surgery*
  • Urinary Bladder Neoplasms / mortality
  • Urinary Bladder Neoplasms / surgery*