Background: Screening for preeclampsia at 11-13 weeks' gestation by a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and serum placental growth factor (triple test) can predict about 90% of preeclampsia, with delivery at <32 weeks (early-preeclampsia), and 75% of preeclampsia with delivery at <37 weeks (preterm preeclampsia), at a screen-positive rate of 10%. In pregnancies identified as being at high risk for preeclampsia by such screening, administration of aspirin (150 mg/d from 11 to 14 weeks' gestation to 36 weeks) reduces the rate of early preeclampsia by about 90% and preterm preeclampsia by about 60%. Recording of maternal history and blood pressure are part of routine prenatal care, but measurement of uterine artery pulsatility index and placental growth factor require additional costs.
Objective: To explore the possibility of carrying out first-stage screening in the whole population by maternal factors alone or a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure and uterine artery pulsatility index or maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, and placental growth factor and proceeding to second-stage screening by the triple test only for a subgroup of the population selected on the basis of the risk derived from first-stage screening.
Study design: The data for this study were derived from prospective nonintervention screening for preeclampsia at 11+0 to 13+6 weeks' gestation in 61,174 singleton pregnancies. Patient-specific risks of delivery with preeclampsia at <37 and <32 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing risks model to combine the prior distribution of the gestational age at delivery with preeclampsia, obtained from maternal characteristics and medical history, with various combinations of multiple of the median values of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and placental growth factor. We estimated the detection rate of preterm-preeclampsia and early-preeclampsia at overall screen-positive rate of 10%, 15%, and 20% from a policy in which first-stage screening of the whole population is carried out by some of the components of the triple test and second-stage screening by the full triple test on women selected on the basis of results from first-stage screening.
Results: If the method of first-stage screening is maternal factors, then measurements of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and placental growth factor can be reserved for only 70% of the population, achieving similar detection rate and screen-positive rate as with screening the whole population with the triple test. In the case of first-stage screening by maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, and uterine artery pulsatility index, then measurement of placental growth factor can be reserved for only 30-40% of the population, and if first-stage screening is by maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, and placental growth factor, measurement of uterine artery pulsatility index can be reserved for only 20-30% of the population. Empirical results were consistent with model-based performance.
Conclusion: Two-stage screening and biomarker testing for only part of the population will have financial benefits over conducting the test for the entire population.
Keywords: Bayes theorem; aspirin; contingent screening; first-trimester screening; mean arterial pressure; placental growth factor; preeclampsia; survival model; uterine artery Doppler.
Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.