Outcome prediction of intracranial aneurysm treatment by flow diverters using machine learning

Neurosurg Focus. 2018 Nov 1;45(5):E7. doi: 10.3171/2018.8.FOCUS18332.


OBJECTIVEFlow diverters (FDs) are designed to occlude intracranial aneurysms (IAs) while preserving flow to essential arteries. Incomplete occlusion exposes patients to risks of thromboembolic complications and rupture. A priori assessment of FD treatment outcome could enable treatment optimization leading to better outcomes. To that end, the authors applied image-based computational analysis to clinically FD-treated aneurysms to extract information regarding morphology, pre- and post-treatment hemodynamics, and FD-device characteristics and then used these parameters to train machine learning algorithms to predict 6-month clinical outcomes after FD treatment.METHODSData were retrospectively collected for 84 FD-treated sidewall aneurysms in 80 patients. Based on 6-month angiographic outcomes, IAs were classified as occluded (n = 63) or residual (incomplete occlusion, n = 21). For each case, the authors modeled FD deployment using a fast virtual stenting algorithm and hemodynamics using image-based computational fluid dynamics. Sixteen morphological, hemodynamic, and FD-based parameters were calculated for each aneurysm. Aneurysms were randomly assigned to a training or testing cohort in approximately a 3:1 ratio. The Student t-test and Mann-Whitney U-test were performed on data from the training cohort to identify significant parameters distinguishing the occluded from residual groups. Predictive models were trained using 4 types of supervised machine learning algorithms: logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM; linear and Gaussian kernels), K-nearest neighbor, and neural network (NN). In the testing cohort, the authors compared outcome prediction by each model trained using all parameters versus only the significant parameters.RESULTSThe training cohort (n = 64) consisted of 48 occluded and 16 residual aneurysms and the testing cohort (n = 20) consisted of 15 occluded and 5 residual aneurysms. Significance tests yielded 2 morphological (ostium ratio and neck ratio) and 3 hemodynamic (pre-treatment inflow rate, post-treatment inflow rate, and post-treatment aneurysm averaged velocity) discriminants between the occluded (good-outcome) and the residual (bad-outcome) group. In both training and testing, all the models trained using all 16 parameters performed better than all the models trained using only the 5 significant parameters. Among the all-parameter models, NN (AUC = 0.967) performed the best during training, followed by LR and linear SVM (AUC = 0.941 and 0.914, respectively). During testing, NN and Gaussian-SVM models had the highest accuracy (90%) in predicting occlusion outcome.CONCLUSIONSNN and Gaussian-SVM models incorporating all 16 morphological, hemodynamic, and FD-related parameters predicted 6-month occlusion outcome of FD treatment with 90% accuracy. More robust models using the computational workflow and machine learning could be trained on larger patient databases toward clinical use in patient-specific treatment planning and optimization.

Keywords: AR = aspect ratio; AUC = area under the ROC curve; AV = averaged velocity; CFD = computational fluid dynamics; DSA = digital subtraction angiography; FD = flow diverter; IA = intracranial aneurysm; ICA = internal carotid artery; IR = inflow rate; K-NN = K-nearest neighbor; LR = logistic regression; MCR = metal coverage rate; ML = machine learning; ND = neck diameter; NN = neural network; NR = neck ratio; OsR = ostium ratio; PD = pore density; PED = Pipeline embolization device; Pipeline embolization device; ROC = receiver operating characteristic; SE = standard error; SHR = shear rate; SR = size ratio; SVM = support vector machine; TT = turnover time; computational fluid dynamics; flow diverter; intracranial aneurysm; machine learning; predictive models.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Embolization, Therapeutic / instrumentation
  • Embolization, Therapeutic / methods*
  • Embolization, Therapeutic / trends
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Hydrodynamics*
  • Intracranial Aneurysm / diagnostic imaging
  • Intracranial Aneurysm / physiopathology
  • Intracranial Aneurysm / therapy*
  • Machine Learning* / trends
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Self Expandable Metallic Stents* / trends
  • Treatment Outcome