Objective: To describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS) in permanent residents and migrants in Shanghai during 2005 to 2015 and provide suggestions for the HIV/AIDS prevention. Methods: The data of HIV/AIDS was collected from the National HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System based on report date. The population data was collected from the statistical yearbook of Shanghai. Spatial analysis was conducted using the hotspots model in ArcGIS. SaTScan software was employed to determine the distribution of HIV clusters in space, time or both. Results: During 2005 to 2015, a total of 13 498 cases of HIV/AIDS were reported in Shanghai. The prevalence of HIV increased from 0.025/10(5) (450 cases) to 0.093/10(5) (2 236 cases). The prevalence of AIDS increased from 0.002/10(5) (32 cases) to 0.028/10(5) (683 cases). Hotspot analysis showed that the hot spot of incidence of migrants had moved from Hongkou (2005) (Z=2.96, P=0.003) to Changning (2006-2015) (all Z>1.96, P<0.05); whereas the hot spot of incidence of permanent residents had moving from Jinshan (2005-2007) (all Z>2.58, P<0.01) to downtown area (2006-2015) (all Z>1.96, P<0.05). The spatial high clusters of HIV and AIDS were same, including Huangpu, Xuhui, Changning, Jingan, Putuo, Hongkou and Yangpu; The temporal high clusters of HIV cases among permanent residents were 2011 to 2015, and the spatial clusters were Huangpu, Xuhui, Changning, Jingan. The temporal high clusters of HIV cases among migrants were 2014 to 2015, and the spatial clusters was Xuhui, Changning, Jingan. Conclusion: The total HIV/AIDS incidence in Shanghai was clustered in downtown area. The cluster of the incidence of the permanent residents had moving towards that of migrants, indicating the cluster area deserves a close surveillance.
目的： 分析上海市2005—2015年常住人口与外来人口HIV和艾滋病时空分布特征。 方法： 在全国艾滋病综合防治数据信息系统中，按发病日期收集2005—2015年上海市各区县报告的HIV感染和艾滋病发病数据。2005—2015年上海市常住人口数及外来人口数来自2006—2016年各年的《上海统计年鉴》。利用AcrGIS软件进行局部空间自相关分析，并用SaTScan软件进行时空扫描分析，描述时间和空间分布特征。 结果： 2005—2015年，上海市累计报告HIV感染者和艾滋病患者为13 498例；报告的HIV感染例数由2005年的450例增加至2015年的2 236例，感染率由0.025/10万增加至0.093/10万；报告的艾滋病发病例数由2005年的32例增加至2015年的683例，发病率由0.002/10万增加至0.028/10万。局部空间自相关分析显示，上海市外来人口的HIV感染率热点最初出现在虹口区（Z=2.96，P=0.003），2006年以后基本稳定在长宁区（各年Z值均>1.96，P<0.05）；常住人口的HIV感染率热点2005—2007年在金山区（各年Z值均>2.58，P<0.01），2008年后移动至中心城区并基本趋于固定（各年Z值均>1.96，P<0.05）。时空扫描分析结果显示，上海市HIV感染和艾滋病发病高值聚集区相同，均为黄浦、徐汇、长宁、静安、普陀、虹口和杨浦区；常住人口HIV感染高发时段为2011—2015年，高值聚集区为黄浦、徐汇、长宁和静安区；外来人口HIV感染高发时段为2014—2015年，高值聚集区为徐汇、长宁和静安区。 结论： 上海市HIV感染和艾滋病发病高值区域集中于中心城区；常住人口的HIV感染高值聚集区趋向于外来人口，相关部门应加强对时空高值聚集区的监测。.
Keywords: HIV; Migrants; Space-time clustering.