BP neural network prediction model for suicide attempt among Chinese rural residents

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to establish and assess the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) prediction model for suicide attempt, so as to improve the individual prediction accuracy.

Method: Data was collected from a wide range case-control suicide attempt survey. 659 serious suicide attempters (case group) were randomly recruited through the hospital emergency and patient registration system from 13 rural counties in China. Each case was matched the control by same community, gender, and similar age (± 2 ages). Face to face interviews were conducted for each subject with structured questionnaire. Logistic regression was applied to preliminarily screen the factors and BPNN was used to establish the prediction model of suicide attempt.

Results: Multivariate logistic regression indicated that family history of suicide (OR = 4.146), mental problem (OR = 3.876) Low education level, poor health, aspiration strain, hopelessness, impulsivity, depression are the risk predictors and social support, coping skills, healthy community are the protect predictors for suicide attempt. Repetitious data simulation process of BPNN indicated that three-layer BPNN with 9 hidden layer neurons is the optimal prediction model. The sensitivity (67.6%), specificity (93.9%), positive predictive value (86.0%), negative predictive value (84.1%), total coincidence rate (84.6%) manifested that it is excellent to distinguish suicide attempt case.

Conclusions: The BPNN method is applicative, feasible, credible and good discriminative effect for suicide attempt. The BPNN established has significant clinical meaning for the clinical psychiatrist and lay theoretical foundation for artificial intelligence expert assisted diagnosis system for suicide attempt in the future.

Keywords: BP neural network; Chinese rural residents; Crisis intervention; Prediction model; Suicide attempt.