Aims: Heart failure (HF) is a clinical syndrome with significant social and economic burden. We aimed to estimate the burden of HF in mainland Portugal over a 22-year time horizon, between 2014 and 2036.
Methods and results: Heart failure burden was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), resulting from the sum of years of life lost (YLL) due to premature death and years lost due to disability (YLD). YLL were estimated based on the Portuguese mortality rates reported by the European Detailed Mortality Database. For YLD, disease duration and the overall incidence were estimated using an epidemiological model developed by the World Health Organization (DISMOD II). Disability weights were retrieved from published literature. The impact of ageing was estimated with a shift-share analysis using official demographic projections. In 2014, 4688 deaths were attributed to HF, corresponding to 4.7% of the total deaths in mainland Portugal. DALYs totalled 21 162, 53.9% due to premature death (YLL: 11 398) and 46.1% due to disability (YLD: 9765). Considering only population ageing over a 22-year horizon, the deaths and burden of HF are expected to increase by 73.0% and 27.9%, respectively, reaching 8112 deaths and 27 059 DALYs lost due to HF in 2036. DALY's growth is mainly driven by the increase of YLL, whose contribution to overall burden will increase to 62.0%.
Conclusions: Heart failure is an emerging and growing health problem where significant health gains may be obtained. The projected significant increase of HF burden highlights the need to set HF as a priority for healthcare system.
Keywords: Forecasting; Global Burden of Disease; Heart failure; Morbidity; Mortality; Premature.
© 2019 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.