True colors: A literature review on the spatial distribution of eye and hair pigmentation

Abstract

DNA-based prediction of externally visible characteristics has become an established approach in forensic genetics, with the aim of tracing individuals who are potentially unknown to the investigating authorities but without using this prediction as evidence in court. While a number of prediction models have been proposed, use of prior probabilities in those models has largely been absent. Here, we aim at compiling information on the spatial distribution of eye and hair coloration in order to use this as prior knowledge to improve prediction accuracy. To this end, we conducted a detailed literature review and created maps showing the eye and hair pigmentation prevalence both by countries with available information and by interpolation in order to obtain prior estimates for populations without available data. Furthermore, we assessed the association between these two traits in a very large data set. A strong limitation was the quite low amount of available data, especially outside Europe. We hope that our results will facilitate the improvement of already existing and of novel prediction methods for pigmentation traits and induce further studies on the spatial distribution of these traits.

Keywords: Bayesian priors; Externally visible characteristics; Eye and hair color; Spatial interpolation.