What causes growth of global greenhouse gas emissions? Evidence from 40 countries

Abstract

With the growing attention on global warming, understanding the main drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important. This paper investigated the contribution of intrinsic reasons for consumption-based GHG emissions growth using structural decomposition analysis based on world input-output database from 1995 to 2009. The drivers are decomposed into five sub-effects at both country-level and industry-level. The results are as follows: (1) The rapid global economic growth is the dominating driving force. However, a decreasing emission intensity caused by the improvement of energy efficiency and technology innovation can contribute significantly to emission reduction; (2) Key factors contributing to GHG emissions vary in different country groups. The investment effects in developing countries are overwhelming those in developed countries. Instead, the net export effects in developed countries are greater than them in developing countries, which means that developing countries are becoming pollution haven; (3) China and India are still the key contributors of CO₂ growth and CH₄ growth. In developing countries, the total effects of N₂O emissions changes are positive, which is mainly because agriculture plays an important role in these countries; (4) Cluster analysis depicts the relationship between growth of GHG emissions and gross domestic outputs in different countries.

Keywords: Cluster analysis; Driving factors; Greenhouse gas; Structural decomposition analysis; World input-output tables.