Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is curative in myelofibrosis, and current prognostic scoring systems aim to select patients for transplantation. Here, we aimed to develop a prognostic score to determine prognosis after transplantation itself, using clinical, molecular, and transplant-specific information from a total of 361 patients with myelofibrosis. Of these, 205 patients were used as a training cohort to create a clinical-molecular myelofibrosis transplant scoring system (MTSS), which was then externally validated in a cohort of 156 patients. Multivariable analysis on survival identified age at least 57 years, Karnofsky performance status lower than 90%, platelet count lower than 150 × 109/L, leukocyte count higher than 25 × 109/L before transplantation, HLA-mismatched unrelated donor, ASXL1 mutation, and non-CALR/MPL driver mutation genotype being independent predictors of outcome. The uncorrected concordance index for the final survival model was 0.723, and bias-corrected indices were similar. Risk factors were incorporated into a 4-level MTSS: low (score, 0-2), intermediate (score, 3-4), high (score, 5), and very high (score, >5). The 5-year survival according to risk groups in the validation cohort was 83% (95% confidence interval [CI], 71%-95%), 64% (95% CI, 53%-75%), 37% (95% CI, 17%-57%), and 22% (95% CI, 4%-39%), respectively (P < .001). Increasing score was predictive of nonrelapse mortality (P < .001) and remained applicable to primary (0.718) and post-essential thrombocythemia (ET)/polycythemia vera (PV) myelofibrosis (0.701) improving prognostic ability in comparison with all currently available disease-specific systems. In conclusion, this MTSS predicts outcome of patients with primary and post-ET/PV myelofibrosis undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation.
© 2019 by The American Society of Hematology.