Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps

Abstract

A transition towards long-term sustainability in global energy systems based on renewable energy resources can mitigate several growing threats to human society simultaneously: greenhouse gas emissions, human-induced climate deviations, and the exceeding of critical planetary boundaries. However, the optimal structure of future systems and potential transition pathways are still open questions. This research describes a global, 100% renewable electricity system, which can be achieved by 2050, and the steps required to enable a realistic transition that prevents societal disruption. Modelling results show that a carbon neutral electricity system can be built in all regions of the world in an economically feasible manner. This radical transformation will require steady but evolutionary changes for the next 35 years, and will lead to sustainable and affordable power supply globally.

Fig. 1

Main types of 100% renewable electricity systems. Four main types of RE-based power systems are identified based on their main source of electricity (more than 50% share of electricity generation). If none of the technologies have a share exceeding 50%, then the type is defined as “Technology mix-based system”

Fig. 2

Levelized cost of electricity for 100% renewable electricity systems in 2050. Country average numbers are presented. Numbers are calculated based on the generation mix for 2050 and financial and technical assumptions for all electricity system components. For countries divided in several regions, levelized cost of electricity is calculated as weighted average

Fig. 3

Power and storage capacities, power generation and storage throughput from 2015 to 2050. During the first steps of the transition most of new installed capacities are represented by wind turbines, as the least cost source of electricity during this time in most regions. Later with cost decline of PV and battery storage technologies, and utilization of most efficient wind generation sites, the share of PV in new installed capacities becomes dominant. Some wind turbine capacities are reinstalled in the later periods of the transition to substitute decommissioned old turbines. Overall growth of cumulated installed capacities is initiated by both growth of the power demand and the generally lower FLh of RE sources. Substantial growth of storage technologies capacities starts after 2030, when the VRE generation share exceeds 50% in most of the regions. PV photovoltaics, RE renewable energy

Fig. 4

Global GHG emissions for the transition period 2015−2050. According to the existing trends in energy system development, the possible decrease of GHG emissions by 2020 will not be reached, global emissions may increase in comparison to the 2015 value. GHG greenhouse gas

Fig. 5

Globally averaged electricity system LCOE for the transition period from 2015 to 2050. LCOE primary levelized cost of electricity generation, LCOS levelized cost of storage, LCOC levelized cost of curtailment, LCOT levelized cost of transmission. a Breakdown by system components. b Breakdown by cost components. The energy transition leads to lower cost electricity supply. Applied financial and technical assumptions do not consider any breakthrough in efficiency or cost development, only evolutionary improvements and extending existing trends (see Supplementary Material for assumptions and results for all major regions)