Prognosis and improved outcomes in major depression: a review

Abstract

Treatment outcomes for major depressive disorder (MDD) need to be improved. Presently, no clinically relevant tools have been established for stratifying subgroups or predicting outcomes. This literature review sought to investigate factors closely linked to outcome and summarize existing and novel strategies for improvement. The results show that early recognition and treatment are crucial, as duration of untreated depression correlates with worse outcomes. Early improvement is associated with response and remission, while comorbidities prolong course of illness. Potential biomarkers have been explored, including hippocampal volumes, neuronal activity of the anterior cingulate cortex, and levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and central and peripheral inflammatory markers (e.g., translocator protein (TSPO), interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα)). However, their integration into routine clinical care has not yet been fully elucidated, and more research is needed in this regard. Genetic findings suggest that testing for CYP450 isoenzyme activity may improve treatment outcomes. Strategies such as managing risk factors, improving clinical trial methodology, and designing structured step-by-step treatments are also beneficial. Finally, drawing on existing guidelines, we outline a sequential treatment optimization paradigm for selecting first-, second-, and third-line treatments for acute and chronically ill patients. Well-established treatments such as electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) are clinically relevant for treatment-resistant populations, and novel transcranial stimulation methods such as theta-burst stimulation (TBS) and magnetic seizure therapy (MST) have shown promising results. Novel rapid-acting antidepressants, such as ketamine, may also constitute a paradigm shift in treatment optimization for MDD.

Fig. 1. Summary of imaging findings and their relationship with outcome.

Imaging findings exhibiting unidirectional (left) relationships with outcome in MDD vs. bidirectional (right). fMRI, functional magnetic resonance imaging; PET, positron emission tomography; EEG electroencephalography; 5-HT1A, serotonin-1A receptor; SERT, serotonin transporter; MAO-A monoamine oxidase-A; BP_ND, nondisplaceable binding potential; V_T, volume of distribution

Fig. 2. Applicability of candidate markers in MDD.

Candidate disease markers can be applied in clinically meaningful ways. While only candidate markers are presently available, sorting these according to their potential applications may facilitate the development of clinically applicable disease markers. The outline follows the classification of markers as suggested by others (modified and reprinted with permission from Springer)

Fig. 3. Sequential treatment optimization scheme for major depression.

A sequential treatment optimization scheme was generated based on antidepressant treatment guidelines (see Table 2). Treatment optimization is possible for patients being treated for the first time but also for patients with insufficient response to first- or second-stage therapies. a Treatment response curves for four common types of patients highlight the importance of sequentially introducing the next step upon non-response to previous steps. b Currently available treatments are listed in neuroscience-based nomenclature with treatment lines corresponding to improvement curves in a. Although current classifications vary, patients classified as having treatment-resistant depression (TRD) are eligible for second- or third-stage therapies. 5-HT1A and similar: serotonin receptor subtypes; DBS: deep brain stimulation; DAT: dopamine transporter; D2: dopamine receptor D2; ECT: electroconvulsive therapy; MAO: monoamine oxidase; NET: noradrenaline transporter; SERT: serotonin transporter; TBS: theta-burst stimulation; rTMS: repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation; DA: dopamine; NE: norepinephrine.

Fig. 4. Easily overlooked but efficiently modified factors potentially confounding response to antidepressant treatment (pseudoresistance).

Points—in random order—follow earlier suggestions by Dold and Kasper (2017)