Projected oropharyngeal carcinoma incidence among middle-aged US men

Head Neck. 2019 Sep;41(9):3226-3234. doi: 10.1002/hed.25810. Epub 2019 May 24.


Background: The incidence of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is rapidly increasing. This study aimed to describe the temporal trends and projection of OPC incidence.

Methods: Incidence data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and trends were calculated using the joinpoint regression model.

Results: The incidence of OPC in the US population significantly increased by 1.94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65%-2.23%) per year from 2000 to 2015. OPC was projected to increase continuously over the next 30 years, with more than half of projected new OPC cases being found in non-Hispanic white men aged 55-69 years. By 2045, OPC will become the third most common cancer in 55-69-year-old non-Hispanic white men in the United States.

Conclusions: The incidence of OPC is expected to increase substantially in the US population, particularly among middle-aged non-Hispanic white men. Our projections may have implications for policy makers.

Keywords: HPV; forecasting; incidence; oropharyngeal cancer; temporal trend.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Ethnicity / statistics & numerical data*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Oropharyngeal Neoplasms / diagnosis
  • Oropharyngeal Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • SEER Program
  • Sex Distribution
  • United States / epidemiology
  • White People / statistics & numerical data*