Purpose: Most surveillance efforts in childhood diabetes have focused on incidence, whereas prevalence is rarely reported. This study aimed to assess whether a mathematical illness-death model accurately estimated future prevalence from baseline prevalence and incidence rates in children.
Methods: SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth is an ongoing population-based surveillance study of prevalence and incidence of diabetes and its complications among youth in the United States. We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific SEARCH estimates of the prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in 2001 and incidence from 2002 to 2008. These data were used in a partial differential equation to estimate prevalence in 2009 with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Model-based prevalence was compared with the observed prevalence in 2009.
Results: Most confidence intervals for the difference between estimated and observed prevalence included zero, indicating no evidence for a difference between the two methods. The width of confidence intervals indicated high precision for the estimated prevalence when considering all races/ethnicities. In strata with few cases, precision was reduced.
Conclusions: Future prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in youth may be accurately estimated from baseline prevalence and incidence. Diabetes surveillance could benefit from potential cost savings of this method.
Keywords: Adolescents; Children; Epidemiology; Ethnic groups; Illness-death model; Surveillance; Type I diabetes; Type II diabetes.
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