Background: Within India's military medical framework, alcohol dependence syndrome (ADS) is deemed a treatable medical illness incompatible with military service, and complete abstinence is the only acceptable successful treatment outcome. Objective: This study was designed to identify factors which were able to differentiate treatment outcomes of abstinence and relapse among ADS patients in a military framework. Method: Recognizing personal incentives to misrepresent alcohol consumption, abstinence, and relapse outcomes were established using official reports from a patient's parent unit, in combination with biochemical parameters and clinical examination. Patients serially admitted for ADS treatment or follow-up review were surveyed, and their socio-demographic and alcohol consumption profiles, coping styles, life events and specific relapse precipitants were recorded and compared as contributory variables in a cognitive-behavioral model of ADS. From this survey of 140 patients, membership to abstainer or relapser groups was then predicted using a discriminant analysis. Results: 34% of patients achieved early absolute abstinence. No baseline socio-demographic or drinking profile distinctions existed between abstainers and relapsers. Differences were forthcoming on coping styles, life-event, and relapse-precipitant exposure measures. Stepwise discriminant analysis produced a final equation comprising 10 independent variables (including two positive life event measures), which predicted an abstinence/relapse outcome with an 86% and 79% hit-rate (original and cross-validated). Conclusion: Using prevailing cognitive-behavioral constructs, early absolute abstinence emerged as an actionable objective and an achievable goal without any contributory socio-demographic predilections. This preliminary evaluation suggests it is a tenable and realistic target of current ADS treatment programs.
Keywords: Alcoholism; alcohol abstinence; discriminant analysis; drinking behavior; relapse.