Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a HMGA2 Prognostic Test for Acute Myeloid Leukemia in a Canadian Setting

Appl Health Econ Health Policy. 2019 Dec;17(6):827-839. doi: 10.1007/s40258-019-00503-5.


Background: Current strategies for risk stratification of patients with acute myeloid leukemia assign approximately 40% of patients to the intermediate-risk group, where uncertainty about optimal therapy still persists.

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of a HMGA2 prognostic test based on HMGA2+/HMGA2- expression, which improves genetic risk stratification in acute myeloid leukemia, and compare this test with the current standard of care in Canada.

Methods: A cost-effectiveness model was developed from the Canadian National Healthcare Service and societal perspective using data from the Quebec Leukemia Cell Bank, published literature, and physician surveys. The model includes a lifetime horizon assessing the HMGA2 test vs. standard of care.

Results: The HMGA2 test outperformed the standard of care at all time horizons culminating with estimated improvements of 1.92 and 3.12 months in leukemia-free survival and overall survival, respectively. Costs associated with the HMGA2 test were consistently lower, except diagnostic costs, routine medical costs, and costs related to infections and false positives. From a societal perspective, total lifetime costs were $161,358 CAD and $151,908 CAD with the standard of care and the HMGA2 test, respectively. The incremental quality-adjusted life-year gain was 0.138, which led to dominance over the standard of care. Deterministic sensitivity analyses confirmed the results of the base-case scenario. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed that for a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 CAD, the probability of cost effectiveness was 87.19%.

Conclusions: The HMGA2 test is estimated to improve leukemia-free survival and overall survival outcomes, and yield costs savings from a healthcare system and societal perspective.

MeSH terms

  • Biomarkers / analysis
  • Canada
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis*
  • Diagnostic Techniques and Procedures / economics*
  • HMGA2 Protein / analysis*
  • Humans
  • Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute / diagnosis*
  • Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute / physiopathology*
  • Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute / therapy
  • Prognosis
  • Quality-Adjusted Life Years


  • Biomarkers
  • HMGA2 Protein
  • HMGA2 protein, human