Ecological niche modelling for predicting the risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Neotropical moist forest biome

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2019 Aug 14;13(8):e0007629. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007629. eCollection 2019 Aug.

Abstract

A major challenge of eco-epidemiology is to determine which factors promote the transmission of infectious diseases and to establish risk maps that can be used by public health authorities. The geographic predictions resulting from ecological niche modelling have been widely used for modelling the future dispersion of vectors based on the occurrence records and the potential prevalence of the disease. The establishment of risk maps for disease systems with complex cycles such as cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) can be very challenging due to the many inference networks between large sets of host and vector species, with considerable heterogeneity in disease patterns in space and time. One novelty in the present study is the use of human CL cases to predict the risk of leishmaniasis occurrence in response to anthropogenic, climatic and environmental factors at two different scales, in the Neotropical moist forest biome (Amazonian basin and surrounding forest ecosystems) and in the surrounding region of French Guiana. With a consistent data set never used before and a conceptual and methodological framework for interpreting data cases, we obtained risk maps with high statistical support. The predominantly identified human CL risk areas are those where the human impact on the environment is significant, associated with less contributory climatic and ecological factors. For both models this study highlights the importance of considering the anthropogenic drivers for disease risk assessment in human, although CL is mainly linked to the sylvatic and peri-urban cycle in Meso and South America.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Ecology*
  • Ecosystem*
  • Forests*
  • French Guiana / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous / epidemiology*
  • Prevalence
  • Seasons
  • South America / epidemiology

Grants and funding

This study was conducted within the RESERVOIRS program supported by European (ERDF/FEDER) funds and assistance from Collectivité Territoriale de la Guyane and Direction Régionale pour la Recherche et la Technologie, and the MicroBIOME project granted by Laboratoire d'Excellence CEBA “Investissement d’Avenir” and managed by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (CEBA, Ref. ANR-10-LABEX-25-01). AC benefits from a PhD grant from the French Guiana University. JFG is sponsored by Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut national de la recherche agronomique and Montpellier University. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.