In Germany there is a threat of a shortage of junior general practitioners (GPs). One third of currently employed GPs are 60 years and older. Every year, 1700 GPs leave the profession, while only about 1350 new GP-specialist approvals are issued. The Advisory Council on the Assessment of Developments in the Health Care Sector estimates that there will be around 20,000 unmet replacement needs by 2025. By 2017, 2600 GP seats were already vacant.Based on the results of the KarMed study, this paper examines the questions as to how many residents intend to become general practitioners after graduation and how they develop during postgraduate training. Furthermore, the consequences of the increasing proportion of female physicians in primary care in terms of the possible volume of work will be investigated. Finally, measures that could reduce a possible personnel shortage are discussed.The attractiveness of general practice has increased considerably during residency over the last six years of observation. The preference for GP work is linked to parenthood. More female doctors strive for part-time work and an employment contract instead of a private practice. On this basis, it can be estimated that the volume of work performed by these female GPs will be half that of the traditional (male) working model in private practice.The forecasted numbers of new recruits are unlikely to be sufficient to cover the demand for GP care in Germany. Possible effective measures would be, for example, the introduction of a gatekeeper system, creation of multi-professional centers, a quota system for access to postgraduate training of specialists, a reformed national planning of GP supply in the country, and a shortening and flexibilization of postgraduate training for general practice.
Keywords: Career choice; Gender differences; General practice; Physician supply; Postgraduate medical education.