The vertical radiation dose profile and decision-making in a simulated urban event

Abstract

A radiological dispersal device (RDD) is built using an explosive device laced with radioactive materials. The RDD appears as a speculative radiological weapon with the aim of spreading radioactive material across an inhabited area. This study seeks to evaluate how the official decision-making process is influenced by the radiation vertical profile dose, using the hypothetical scenario of a simulated RDD detonation in a densely populated urban area. A simulated plume of strong radiation was generated from the explosion site, contaminating the surrounding area. Several atmospheric conditions impact on the contamination. However, this study focusses on the following main variables considered by HotSpot for a conservative simulation: (a) the atmospheric stability conditions (Pasquill-Gifford - PG classes); (b) the explosive power, and (c) the source-term. Gaussian modeling was used for its speed, and for its capacity to estimate the time-integrated atmospheric concentration of an aerosol at any point in 3D space. The simulation provided information about four main outcomes: (a) contamination plume area; (b) radiological risk dependency on PG classes; (c) total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) with a possible dependence on receptor height; and (d) potentially affected population's size. The findings suggest that a protocolled response from authorities should be implemented in order to effectively follow possible changes in the PG class. Which, in turn, may negatively impact the decision-making process.

Keywords: Decision-making; Environmental contamination; Radiation; Simulation.