Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9 th edition

Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2019 Nov;157:107843. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2019.107843. Epub 2019 Sep 10.

Abstract

Aims: To provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045.

Methods: A total of 255 high-quality data sources, published between 1990 and 2018 and representing 138 countries were identified. For countries without high quality in-country data, estimates were extrapolated from similar countries matched by economy, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates (including previously undiagnosed diabetes) in adults aged 20-79 years.

Results: The global diabetes prevalence in 2019 is estimated to be 9.3% (463 million people), rising to 10.2% (578 million) by 2030 and 10.9% (700 million) by 2045. The prevalence is higher in urban (10.8%) than rural (7.2%) areas, and in high-income (10.4%) than low-income countries (4.0%). One in two (50.1%) people living with diabetes do not know that they have diabetes. The global prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance is estimated to be 7.5% (374 million) in 2019 and projected to reach 8.0% (454 million) by 2030 and 8.6% (548 million) by 2045.

Conclusions: Just under half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide and the number is projected to increase by 25% in 2030 and 51% in 2045.

Keywords: Diabetes; Impaired glucose tolerance; International Diabetes Federation; Prevalence; Projections; Undiagnosed.

Publication types

  • Historical Article

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Diabetes Mellitus / epidemiology*
  • Female
  • Forecasting*
  • Global Health
  • History, 21st Century
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prevalence
  • Young Adult